Russian military problems continue in eastern Ukraine: experts

“RECIPE FOR DISASTER”

Like its Soviet predecessor, the Russian army’s strategy is based on mathematical calculations that leave little room for initiative and dealing with unexpected situations, the source said.

On February 24, Russia launched its offensive on three fronts simultaneously: in the north towards kyiv, in the east and in the south.

Since the end of March, Russia has concentrated 80 percent of its available troops in the east, up from 20 percent previously.

And Moscow has managed to reposition a large number of tanks and adapt to some of its pro-Western neighbor’s tactics.

However, many of the Russian military’s problems of the kind seen in the first month of the war in northern Ukraine and around kyiv remain unresolved.

“Each unit is fighting its own war both tactically and strategically” instead of coordinating, said Alexander Grinberg of the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS) think tank.

“Even if Putin declares a general call – theoretically they can recruit more people – it is hard to imagine how they will overcome the most basic organizational problems,” Grinberg said.

The Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, has himself been on the front lines, a sign of his difficulty delegating power.

“The system is so centralized that Putin himself almost takes manual control of things that should be carried out by professional soldiers,” Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at the University of Tartu in Estonia, told AFP.

“This is a recipe for disaster.”

According to experts, the stalemate on the eastern front means that a sudden Russian victory now seems ruled out forever.

For Putin, any kind of result will be a kind of defeat, Klyszcz said.

“Russia has taken on a challenge that it dramatically underestimated. It launched a war that it could not win,” he said.

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